Climate change beliefs of independent voters shift with the weather, UNH study finds
University of New Hampshire |
There's
a well-known saying in New England that if you don't like the weather here,
wait a minute. When it comes to independent voters, those weather changes can
just as quickly shift beliefs about climate change. New research from the
University of New Hampshire finds that the climate change beliefs of
independent voters are dramatically swayed by short-term weather conditions.
The research was conducted by Lawrence Hamilton, professor of sociology and
senior fellow at the Carsey Institute, and Mary Stampone, assistant professor
of geography and the New Hampshire state climatologist.
"We
find that over 10 surveys, Republicans and Democrats remain far apart and firm
in their beliefs about climate change. Independents fall in between these
extremes, but their beliefs appear weakly held -- literally blowing in the
wind. Interviewed on unseasonably warm days, independents tend to agree with
the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change. On unseasonably cool
days, they tend not to," Hamilton and Stampone say.
Hamilton
and Stampone used statewide data from about 5,000 random-sample telephone
interviews conducted on 99 days over two and a half years (2010 to 2012) by the
Granite State Poll. They combined the survey data with temperature and
precipitation indicators derived from New Hampshire's U.S. Historical
Climatology Network (USHCN) station records. Survey respondents were asked
whether they thought climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human
activities. Alternatively, respondents could state that climate change is not
happening, or that it is happening but mainly for natural reasons.
Unseasonably
warm or cool temperatures on the interview day and previous day seemed to shift
the odds of respondents believing that humans are changing the climate.
However, when researchers broke these responses down by political affiliation
(Democrat, Republican or independent), they found that temperature had a
substantial effect on climate change views mainly among independent voters.
"Independent
voters were less likely to believe that climate change was caused by humans on
unseasonably cool days and more likely to believe that climate change was
caused by humans on unseasonably warm days. The shift was dramatic. On the
coolest days, belief in human-caused climate change dropped below 40 percent
among independents. On the hottest days, it increased above 70 percent,"
Hamilton says.
New
Hampshire's self-identified independents generally resemble their counterparts
on a nationwide survey that asked the same questions, according to the
researchers. Independents comprise 18 percent of the New Hampshire estimation
sample, compared with 17 percent nationally. They are similar with respect to
education, but slightly older, and more balanced with respect to gender.
In conducting
their analysis, the researchers took into account other factors such as
education, age, and sex. They also made adjustments for the seasons, and for
random variation between surveys that might be caused by nontemperature events.
Source: University of New Hampshire
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